Michael Pachla: Buffalo Sabres Expansion Draft protected list, Version 1.0

Nice blog Michael. Any youngsters you worried about losing?

Not first

Pretty much exactly what I came up with as well. But, as I'm sure most of us have concluded, this is where JB needs to really push for a trade...with the Ducks being the obvious choice. That 3rd spot on defense? If we're looking at protecting Taylor Fedun, no offense to Taylor Fedun...who I really like and thought he got a raw deal last year (and yes...I agree...he's probably a player that would fit in JB's defensive plans) but a player like Sami Vatanen would be easier to stomach in that 3rd spot. To do so, you might have to give up a combination of prospects (that don't need protecting) and picks...but for a mobile puck-moving defenseman...it's worth it. I'm excited to see what Botterill does, given he has no ties to this roster...but can come in fresh eyes.

I am a homer.

(Not "the" Homer.)

Nice blog Michael. Any youngsters you worried about losing?
- Matthews_Auston

Carrier is probably the only one

Pretty much exactly what I came up with as well. But, as I'm sure most of us have concluded, this is where JB needs to really push for a trade...with the Ducks being the obvious choice. That 3rd spot on defense? If we're looking at protecting Taylor Fedun, no offense to Taylor Fedun...who I really like and thought he got a raw deal last year (and yes...I agree...he's probably a player that would fit in JB's defensive plans) but a player like Sami Vatanen would be easier to stomach in that 3rd spot. To do so, you might have to give up a combination of prospects (that don't need protecting) and picks...but for a mobile puck-moving defenseman...it's worth it. I'm excited to see what Botterill does, given he has no ties to this roster...but can come in fresh eyes.
- gipper0073

totally agree, gipper...and God I'd love to put a checkmark next to a name like Vatanen

i like it. by protecting carrier and ullmark you take the easy, cheap kid with some upside- choice off the board. ennis at 4.6 probably looks a lot better if the best kid on the board is deslauriers. i would still rather move moulson, but i would not be unhappy if ennis went.

https://hockey-graphs.com...g-styles-with-clustering/

For 365

I wonder if Buffalo will try to make some moves with the Pens. Fleury and Maata are two that stick out. Botterill will obviously know exactly what the Pens are looking to do moving forward and there could be a few mutually beneficial deals between the two teams.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/05/15/identifying-team-playing-styles-with-clustering/

For 365
- sbroads24

That's actually very interesting.

I wonder if Buffalo will try to make some moves with the Pens. Fleury and Maata are two that stick out. Botterill will obviously know exactly what the Pens are looking to do moving forward and there could be a few mutually beneficial deals between the two teams.
- MacPatty

maata would be of interest, but I don't think he should be looking at fleury...they need to move salary, not add

That's actually very interesting.
- Der Kaiser

It is, especially this part

"There is Dallas’s offensive playing style overlaid over LA’s. Over the last two seasons we’ve collected 68 Stars games and 44 Kings games. You can see that while both are high in expected goals, that changes quite quickly when you look at expected shooting percentage: Dallas was at 4.7% and L.A. at 4.1%. The Kings score through volume and a style that doesn’t lend itself to creativity or smart puck movement"

If a team’s roster is set, but they are starving for goals and can’t count on regression to the mean for better scoring in the future, evaluating and tweaking their style of play is one avenue that remains unexplored by hockey analytics – until now that is. How might this improve a team’s fortunes? Let’s again look at the expected shooting percentage of the two teams above. Over the last two seasons, the Kings averaged a little over 4000 shots a season. We would expect 164 goals at 5v5 from that output. If the Kings adopted a style similar to the Stars, we would expect 188 goals, an improvement of 24 goals. At 4.8 goals per win, that’s an improvement of 5 wins, or 10 points. They missed the playoffs by 8 points, so it certainly has practical applications as far as a way data analysis can be used to improve a team’s performance when trades and new signings cannot be made.

no reason at all for vegas to want ennis.

It is, especially this part

"There is Dallas’s offensive playing style overlaid over LA’s. Over the last two seasons we’ve collected 68 Stars games and 44 Kings games. You can see that while both are high in expected goals, that changes quite quickly when you look at expected shooting percentage: Dallas was at 4.7% and L.A. at 4.1%. The Kings score through volume and a style that doesn’t lend itself to creativity or smart puck movement"

If a team’s roster is set, but they are starving for goals and can’t count on regression to the mean for better scoring in the future, evaluating and tweaking their style of play is one avenue that remains unexplored by hockey analytics – until now that is. How might this improve a team’s fortunes? Let’s again look at the expected shooting percentage of the two teams above. Over the last two seasons, the Kings averaged a little over 4000 shots a season. We would expect 164 goals at 5v5 from that output. If the Kings adopted a style similar to the Stars, we would expect 188 goals, an improvement of 24 goals. At 4.8 goals per win, that’s an improvement of 5 wins, or 10 points. They missed the playoffs by 8 points, so it certainly has practical applications as far as a way data analysis can be used to improve a team’s performance when trades and new signings cannot be made.
- sbroads24

So - systems DO matter?

Carrier is probably the only one
- Michael Pachla

You guys are in great shape then.

maata would be of interest, but I don't think he should be looking at fleury...they need to move salary, not add
- Michael Pachla

Agreed on maata but injures have slowed him down he was pretty legit
At one time ..

So - systems DO matter?
- Der Kaiser

I don't know why I cant post the chart, but I used the graph with Buffalo, Pit, and WSH, and we absolutely killed in every category besides low to high plays.

We had 0 transition game, which we already knew, which is either the personnel (My opinion) or the style of play (others opinion)

Fitz if you see this that last flash episode just made this season so stupid lol

It made zero sense

I wonder if Buffalo will try to make some moves with the Pens. Fleury and Maata are two that stick out. Botterill will obviously know exactly what the Pens are looking to do moving forward and there could be a few mutually beneficial deals between the two teams.
- MacPatty

Maata is crap, you can keep him.

I don't know why I cant post the chart, but I used the graph with Buffalo, Pit, and WSH, and we GOT absolutely killedin every category besides low to high plays.

We had 0 transition game, which we already knew, which is either the personnel (My opinion) or the style of play (others opinion)
- sbroads24

Fixed your typo.

It's possible it was both. Some of us believe that the talent we had was not suited to the system that was employed.

Good work Mike.


When it first became apparent the expansion draft would definitely be a thing I thought it was going to be horrible timing for Buffalo. I thought Vegas was going to get to pick from a solidly rebuilt or rebuilding Buffalo team. It's actually the opposite. And I think that Vegas removing a piece can actually help clean things up for Buffalo. If they take a high cap guy like Moulson that obviously makes more cap space that we need. If they take a younger, up and coming guy like Carrier(not him specifically) if can clear a bit of a log jam we have in our lower line winger ranks. Instead of playing the Rochester shuffle we can better evaluate guys like Baptiste, Rodrigues, Bailey and others.

Fixed your typo.

It's possible it was both. Some of us believe that the talent we had was not suited to the system that was employed.
- Der Kaiser

I'd say probable.

Even using the Kings/Stars example as a comparable, say we shifted systems that gave us 24 goals and 8-10 points, we'd still be what, 7 points from the 2nd WC spot?

So, maybe if we had a different coach, we still are far enough away for it not to matter other than draft position.

Ok. How? First of all, you're not a barbarian, put the (frank)ing seat down. Second of all why are you holding your toothbrush over your toilet? Grab the paste and do it over the sink.
- Wetbandit1

1. I leave the seat up because my cat refuses to drink from anywhere else

2. I was going to put my toothbrush back in the cupboard and I fumbled

3. Luckily it was an old brush at the end of it's life and I had a new one waiting

4. You should get back on fantasy because I'm still playing with Logan Shaw and Mike (frank)ing Condon so I'm sure you'll be fine with Crosby.

1. I leave the seat up because my cat refuses to drink from anywhere else



2. I was going to put my toothbrush back in the cupboard and I fumbled

3. Luckily it was an old brush at the end of it's life and I had a new one waiting

4. You should get back on fantasy because I'm still playing with Logan Shaw and Mike (frank)ing Condon so I'm sure you'll be fine with Crosby.
- chilliard77

1. Dude seriously? Why not get the fake toilet at a pet store and put fresh water in it toilet water is not good at all lol